Heracles vs Roda
Netherlands Eerste Divisie
Heracles
Roda
November 6, 2026 at 20:00 · Polman Stadion
Won
Heracles vs Roda prediction and betting tip for this Netherlands Eerste Divisie match, kicking off November 6, 2026 at 20:00 at Polman Stadion. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.11), 84% confidence. Final score: 5-1 (3-1). The tip won.
- Home Win Won
Heracles 5-1 Roda: Match Report
Heracles thrashed Roda 5-1 at Polman Stadion in the Netherlands Eerste Divisie on Jumat. Heracles led 3-1 at half-time.
Tristan Van Gilst opened the scoring for Heracles on 7 minutes. Anthony van den Hurk levelled for Roda on 9 minutes from the penalty spot. Jean-Paul N'djoli put Heracles in front on 25 minutes. Jean-Paul N'djoli made it 3-1 on 46 minutes. Tristan Van Gilst made it 4-1 on 51 minutes, set up by Manny Rodriguez Baldera. Tristan Van Gilst made it 5-1 on 68 minutes, set up by Mario Borac.
Heracles had 58% of the ball and 19 shots (11 on target) to Roda's 9 (2). Expected goals finished Heracles 2.49, Roda 1.41, so Heracles deserved the win.
There were 2 yellow cards.
Our tip, Heracles or draw (1X), won as Heracles won.
Goals & cards
- 7' Tristan Van Gilst Heracles
- 9' Anthony van den Hurk Roda · Penalty
- 25' Jean-Paul N'djoli Heracles
- 41' Jerome Deom Roda · Yellow Card
- 45+1' Mitchel Paulissen Roda · Yellow Card
- 45+1' Jean-Paul N'djoli Heracles
- 51' Tristan Van Gilst Heracles · assist Manny Rodriguez Baldera
- 68' Tristan Van Gilst Heracles · assist Mario Borac
Match stats
Before the match
Heracles hosted Roda in the Netherlands Eerste Divisie (matchday 14) on Jumat 6 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 GMT+0100 at Polman Stadion in Armello.
Heracles have three wins and two draws in their last 5 league games (D-W-W-D-W), averaging 2.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Roda have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 5 league games (L-D-W-W-W), averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Heracles have won 4, Roda 0, with 2 draws and an average of 3.2 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2023, finished Heracles 1-0 Roda.
Heracles average 3.0 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Roda average 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 3 games without scoring, usually in a 3-4-2-1.
Players to watch: J. N'djoli leads Heracles's scoring with 12 goals and 2 assists; A. van den Hurk leads Roda's scoring with 6 goals.
Line-ups: Heracles lined up in a 4-2-3-1, Roda in a 3-4-2-1.
Before kick-off, bookmakers made Heracles the favourites: Heracles 1.55, draw 4.33, Roda 5.00 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.50 and under at 2.50. Both teams to score: yes 1.57, no 2.25.
Our prediction was Heracles or draw (1X). The model gives Heracles or a draw a 90% chance, Heracles have won 3 of their last 5 and bookmakers make Heracles favourites at 1.55.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Roda | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Heracles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Season stats
| Heracles | Roda | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 13 | 13 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 10 / 2 / 1 | 7 / 4 / 2 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 39 (3.0) | 17 (1.3) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 14 (1.1) | 12 (0.9) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 3.0 / 3.0 | 1.7 / 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 |
| Longest winning run | 6 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 5-0 | 2-0 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 3-4-2-1 |
Top scorers
- J. N'djoli 12 goals · 2 assists
- T. van Gilst 8 goals · 2 assists
- A. van den Hurk 6 goals · 0 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds before kick-off.
Starting line-ups
F. de Keijzer, David Vicente, D. Mirani, M. Wrusch, Manny, D. van der Kust, S. Scheperman, C. Abbas, T. van Gilst, M. Hauswirth, J. N'djoli
Coach: V. Heilmann
J. Treichel, M. Tol, D. Van den Buijs, L. Beerten, Guilherme Martinho Peixoto, J. Déom, J. Nisbet, K. Jansen, M. Paulissen, J. Sleegers, A. van den Hurk
Coach: R. Penders
Data: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 22:59. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.89 – 0.92 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 81/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Heracles win | 60.0% |
| Draw | 22.1% |
| Roda win | 17.9% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 82.1% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 40.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69.0% |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 6 Nov 2026, 19:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Heracles or draw (1X) — The model gives Heracles or a draw a 90% chance, Heracles have won 3 of their last 5 and bookmakers make Heracles favourites at 1.55.
Form (last 5)
Heracles
DWWDW
2.6 scored · 0.8 conceded per game
Roda
LDWWW
1.6 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
4 Heracles wins 2 draws 0 Roda wins last 6 meetings
- Heracles1 - 0Roda Eerste Divisie
- Roda1 - 3Heracles Eerste Divisie
- Roda2 - 2Heracles KNVB Beker
- Roda0 - 3Heracles Eredivisie
- Heracles2 - 1Roda Eredivisie
- Heracles2 - 2Roda Eredivisie
Statistics: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 13:58. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
