Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros
Colombia Primera A
Alianza Valledupar
Llaneros
November 9, 2026 at 02:15 · Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau
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Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros prediction and betting tip for this Colombia Primera A match, kicking off November 9, 2026 at 02:15 at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau. Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals (odds 1.25), 84% confidence.
Alianza Valledupar vs Llaneros Preview
Alianza Valledupar host Llaneros in the Colombia Primera A (Clausura - 18) on Senin 9 November 2026, kick-off 02:15 GMT+0100 at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau in Valledupar. S. Bismark is the referee.
Alianza Valledupar are 15th in the table with 18 points from 17 games (5-3-9), while Llaneros sit 13th on 20 points. Only 2 points separate them. At home Alianza Valledupar have won 2 of 9; Llaneros have won 1 of 8 on the road.
Alianza Valledupar have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 5 league games (D-W-W-L-L), averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Llaneros have two wins and three defeats in their last 5 league games (L-W-L-L-W), averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
In their last 3 meetings Alianza Valledupar have won 2, Llaneros 0, with 1 draw and an average of 1.7 goals per game. The most recent, in April 2026, finished Llaneros 0-0 Alianza Valledupar.
Alianza Valledupar average 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game this season, with 8 clean sheets and 13 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Llaneros average 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game this season, with 10 clean sheets and 10 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Bookmakers make Alianza Valledupar the favourites: Alianza Valledupar 2.10, draw 3.10, Llaneros 3.75 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.15 and under at 1.67. Both teams to score: yes 1.83, no 1.83.
Our prediction: Under 3.5 Goals. The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.3 goals, their last 3 meetings averaged 1.7 goals and recent form points to 2.1 goals a game.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | -4 | 20 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | -12 | 18 |
Season stats
| Alianza Valledupar | Llaneros | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 36 | 36 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 8 / 11 / 17 | 10 / 12 / 14 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 30 (0.8) | 36 (1.0) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 56 (1.6) | 43 (1.2) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 10 |
| Failed to score | 13 | 10 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 1-0 | 3-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 12:59. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.17 – 0.92 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 92/100
| Market | Model | Bookmaker* | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Valledupar win | 41.7% | 44.7% | 2.10 | -12.5% |
| Draw | 29.7% | 30.3% | 3.10 | -7.9% |
| Llaneros win | 28.6% | 25.0% | 3.75 | +7.3% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 71.4% | 75.0% | 1.25 | -10.8% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 58.3% | 55.3% | 1.70 | -0.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.8% | 68.8% | 1.36 | -16.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.7% | 43.7% | 2.15 | -25.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 65.3% | 56.3% | 1.67 | +9.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 84.1% | 75.0% | 1.25 | +5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 41.4% | 50.0% | 1.83 | -24.2% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 8 Nov 2026, 16:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. *Bookmaker probability with the margin removed (Bet365). Value = model probability × odds − 1. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Under 3.5 Goals — The two sides' season numbers point to about 2.3 goals, their last 3 meetings averaged 1.7 goals and recent form points to 2.1 goals a game.
Form (last 5)
Alianza Valledupar
DWWLL
1.0 scored · 1.0 conceded per game
Llaneros
LWLLW
0.8 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
2 Alianza Valledupar wins 1 draws 0 Llaneros wins last 3 meetings
- Llaneros0 - 0Alianza Valledupar Primera A
- Alianza Valledupar3 - 1Llaneros Primera A
- Llaneros0 - 1Alianza Valledupar Primera A
Statistics: API-Football · updated 8 Nov 2026, 12:59. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
