Valencia vs Real Madrid
Spain La Liga
Valencia
Real Madrid
November 7, 2026 at 21:00 · Estadio de Mestalla
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Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction and betting tip for this Spain La Liga match, kicking off November 7, 2026 at 21:00 at Estadio de Mestalla. Our tip: Away Win (odds 1.28), 64% confidence.
Valencia vs Real Madrid Preview
Valencia host Real Madrid in the Spain La Liga (matchday 12) on Sabtu 7 November 2026, kick-off 21:00 GMT+0100 at Estadio de Mestalla in Valdivia.
Valencia are 19th in the table with 9 points from 11 games (2-3-6), while Real Madrid sit 3rd on 27 points. Real Madrid have a 18-point advantage. At home Valencia have won 0 of 6; Real Madrid have won 4 of 6 on the road.
Valencia have one win, two draws and two defeats in their last 5 league games (L-D-D-L-W), averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Real Madrid have four wins and one defeat in their last 5 league games (L-W-W-W-W), averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Valencia have won 1, Real Madrid 4, with 1 draw and an average of 3.7 goals per game. The most recent, in Februari 2026, finished Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid.
Valencia average 0.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 5 games without scoring, usually in a 5-4-1. Real Madrid average 2.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: Kylian Mbappé leads Real Madrid's scoring with 12 goals and 2 assists.
Bookmakers make Real Madrid the favourites: Valencia 8.50, draw 6.25, Real Madrid 1.28 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44 and under at 2.75. Both teams to score: yes 1.80, no 1.95.
Our prediction: Real Madrid to win (2). The model makes Real Madrid favourites at 50%, Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 3rd, 16 places above Valencia.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +18 | 27 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
Season stats
| Valencia | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 11 | 11 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 2 / 3 / 6 | 9 / 0 / 2 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 8 (0.7) | 28 (2.5) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 17 (1.5) | 10 (0.9) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 0.5 / 1.0 | 3.4 / 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 1 |
| Longest winning run | 1 | 3 |
| Biggest win | 0-1 | 4-0 |
| Usual formation | 5-4-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
No player in the league's top scorers list.
- Kylian Mbappé 12 goals · 2 assists
- J. Bellingham 4 goals · 3 assists
- Y. Diomande 3 goals · 2 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 14:59. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 0.76 – 1.90 · most likely score 0-1 · data quality 81/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Valencia win | 14.3% |
| Draw | 21.4% |
| Real Madrid win | 64.3% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 35.7% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 85.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.3% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72.2% |
| Both teams to score | 45.4% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 0%, draw 50%, away 50%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 6 Nov 2026, 17:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Real Madrid to win (2) — The model makes Real Madrid favourites at 50%, Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 3rd, 16 places above Valencia.
Form (last 5)
Valencia
LDDLW
1.2 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Real Madrid
LWWWW
2.2 scored · 0.8 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
1 Valencia wins 1 draws 4 Real Madrid wins last 6 meetings
- Valencia0 - 2Real Madrid La Liga
- Real Madrid4 - 0Valencia La Liga
- Real Madrid1 - 2Valencia La Liga
- Valencia1 - 2Real Madrid La Liga
- Valencia2 - 2Real Madrid La Liga
- Real Madrid5 - 1Valencia La Liga
Statistics: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 14:59. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
