Montpellier vs Metz
France Ligue 2
Montpellier
Metz
November 6, 2026 at 20:00 · Stade de la Mosson
Lost
Montpellier vs Metz prediction and betting tip for this France Ligue 2 match, kicking off November 6, 2026 at 20:00 at Stade de la Mosson. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X) (odds 1.29), 81% confidence. Final score: 2-3 (0-2). The tip lost.
- Home Win Lost
Montpellier 2-3 Metz: Match Report
Metz won 3-2 away at Montpellier in the France Ligue 2 on Jumat. Metz led 2-0 at half-time.
Bouna Sarr opened the scoring for Metz on 26 minutes. An own goal by Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou made it 0-2 on 43 minutes. Daylam Meddah pulled one back for Montpellier on 50 minutes, set up by Naoufel El Hannach. Jessy Deminguet made it 1-3 on 51 minutes, set up by Pape Moussa Fall. Mamadou Camara pulled one back for Montpellier on 90 minutes.
Montpellier had 64% of the ball and 23 shots (5 on target) to Metz's 6 (2). Expected goals finished Montpellier 1.99, Metz 0.84, so Metz won against the run of play.
Referee Eddy Rosier showed 3 yellow cards.
Our tip, Montpellier or draw (1X), lost as Metz won.
Goals & cards
- 21' Jessy Deminguet Metz · Yellow Card
- 26' Bouna Sarr Metz
- 31' Daylam Meddah Montpellier · Yellow Card
- 43' Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou Metz · Own Goal
- 50' Daylam Meddah Montpellier · assist Naoufel El Hannach
- 51' Jessy Deminguet Metz · assist Pape Moussa Fall
- 60' Idris Mohamed Metz · Yellow Card
- 90' Mamadou Camara Montpellier
Match stats
Before the match
Montpellier hosted Metz in the France Ligue 2 (matchday 12) on Jumat 6 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 GMT+0100 at Stade de la Mosson in Montpellier. Eddy Rosier was the referee.
Montpellier are 2nd in the table with 24 points from 11 games (7-3-1), while Metz sit 10th on 14 points. Montpellier have a 10-point advantage. At home Montpellier have won 3 of 5; Metz have won 0 of 5 on the road.
Montpellier have four wins and one draw in their last 5 league games (D-W-W-W-W), averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. Metz have one win, two draws and two defeats in their last 5 league games (D-L-W-D-L), averaging 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Montpellier have won 4, Metz 1, with 1 draw and an average of 2.8 goals per game. The most recent, in Januari 2026, finished Metz 0-4 Montpellier.
Montpellier average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game this season, with 7 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Metz average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 1 clean sheet and 2 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
Players to watch: N. Pays leads Montpellier's scoring with 5 goals and 2 assists; P. Fall leads Metz's scoring with 8 goals.
Line-ups: Montpellier lined up in a 4-2-3-1, Metz in a 5-4-1.
Before kick-off, bookmakers made Montpellier the favourites: Montpellier 1.75, draw 3.50, Metz 3.90 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.65 and under at 2.20. Both teams to score: yes 1.62, no 2.20.
Our prediction was Montpellier or draw (1X). The model gives Montpellier or a draw a 90% chance, Montpellier have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 2nd, 8 places above Metz.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Montpellier | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | +10 | 24 |
| 10 | Metz | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
Season stats
| Montpellier | Metz | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 11 | 11 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 7 / 3 / 1 | 3 / 5 / 3 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 16 (1.5) | 17 (1.5) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 6 (0.5) | 17 (1.5) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 1.2 / 1.7 | 2.2 / 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 1 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 2 |
| Longest winning run | 2 | 1 |
| Biggest win | 2-0 | 4-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- N. Pays 5 goals · 2 assists
- Lacine Megnan-Pave 4 goals · 2 assists
- P. Fall 8 goals · 0 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds before kick-off.
Starting line-ups
S. Ngapandouetnbu, Naoufel El Hannach, J. Laporte, Y. Mouanga, Y. Zouaoui, F. Tardieu, D. Meddah, N. Pays, Daryll Benlahlou, Lacine Megnan-Pave, M. Camara
Coach: Z. Camara
J. Fischer, B. Sarr, M. Colin, C. Devenish, U. Mboula, F. Miguel, J. Deminguet, I. Mohamed, T. Savanier, J. Pandore, P. Fall
Coach: Grégory Proment
Data: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 22:59. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Model probabilities
Expected goals 1.64 – 0.84 · most likely score 1-0 · data quality 76/100
| Market | Model |
|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 56.4% |
| Draw | 24.6% |
| Metz win | 19.1% |
| Home or draw (1X) | 80.9% |
| Away or draw (X2) | 43.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55.0% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76.3% |
| Both teams to score | 45.7% |
For comparison, API-Football's own prediction: home 45%, draw 45%, away 10%.
Calculated by our statistical model (Poisson goals model with team strength, home advantage, recent form and expected goals) on 6 Nov 2026, 19:27, model 2.0.0-13d8eb-poisson. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
API-Football win probability (for comparison)
Our tip: Montpellier or draw (1X) — The model gives Montpellier or a draw a 90% chance, Montpellier have won 4 of their last 5 and they sit 2nd, 8 places above Metz.
Form (last 5)
Montpellier
DWWWW
2.2 scored · 0.4 conceded per game
Metz
DLWDL
1.8 scored · 2.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
4 Montpellier wins 1 draws 1 Metz wins last 6 meetings
- Metz0 - 4Montpellier Coupe de France
- Montpellier3 - 0Metz Ligue 1
- Metz0 - 1Montpellier Ligue 1
- Montpellier2 - 2Metz Ligue 1
- Metz1 - 3Montpellier Ligue 1
- Metz1 - 0Montpellier Friendlies Clubs
Statistics: API-Football · updated 6 Nov 2026, 13:58. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).
